PRESS NOTE

QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

FOR THE SECOND QUARTER (JULY-SEPTEMBER) OF 2006-07

The Central Statistical Organisation (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has released the quarterly estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter, July-September (Q2) of 2006-07, both at constant (1999-2000) and current prices. The details of the estimates are presented below.

Estimates at constant (1999-2000) prices

2. Quarterly GDP at factor cost at constant (1999-2000) prices for Q2 of 2006-07 is estimated at Rs. 6,47,290 crore, as against Rs. 5,92,652 crore in Q2 of 2005-06, showing a growth rate of 9.2 per cent over the corresponding quarter of previous year.

3. The sectors which registered significant growth in Q2 of 2006-07 over Q2 of 2005-06 are ‘manufacturing’ at 11.9 per cent, ‘electricity, gas and water supply’ sector at 7.7 per cent, ‘construction’ at 9.8 per cent, ‘trade, hotels, transport and communication’ at 13.9 per cent, ‘financing, insurance, real estate and business services’ at 9.5 per cent, and ‘community, social and personal services’ at 6.9 per cent. The growth rate in ‘agriculture, forestry & fishing’ at 1.7 per cent, and ‘mining and quarrying’ sector at 3.1 per cent registered growth rates of less than 5.0 per cent in Q2 of 2006-07.

4. According to the information furnished by the Department of Agriculture & Cooperation (DAC) on the likely production of crops during the Kharif season of 2006-07, which has been used in compiling the estimates of GDP from agriculture in Q2 of 2006-07, the production of rice, coarse cereals, and pulses is likely to register growth rates of (-) 2.9 per cent, (-) 9.2 per cent, and 6.7 per cent, respectively during the Kharif season of 2006-07 over the corresponding season in the previous year. Among the commercial crops, production of oilseeds is expected to decline by 21.4 per cent during the Kharif season of 2006-07. While production of cotton is expected to decrease by 7.3 per cent, that of sugarcane is expected to increase by 1.8 per cent, during 2006-07 over their estimated production in the previous year.

5. According to the latest estimates available on the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), the index of mining, manufacturing and electricity registered growth rates of 2.6 per cent, 12.4 per cent, and 8.0 per cent, respectively during Q2 of 2006-07 as compared to the growth rates of (-) 2.1 per cent, 7.8 per cent, and 2.0 per cent in these sectors during Q2 of 2005-06. The key indicators of construction sector, namely, cement and steel registered growth rates of 10.4 per cent and 7.6 per cent, respectively during Q2 of 2006-07.

6. Among the services sectors, the key indicators of railways, namely, the net tonne kilometers and passenger kilometers have shown growth rates of 8.2 per cent and 14.2 per cent, respectively during Q2 of 2006-07. The other key indicators, namely, production of commercial vehicles, cargo handled at major ports, passengers handled by civil aviation, total stock of telephones including WLL and cellular phones, aggregate bank deposits, bank credits and total expenditure of central government, respectively have shown growth rates of 31.1 per cent, 5.9 per cent, 27.7 per cent, 49.9 per cent, 19.7 per cent, 29.7 per cent and 19.4 per cent, during Q2 of 2006-07 over Q2 of 2005-06.

Estimates at current prices

7. GDP at factor cost at current prices in Q2 of 2006-07 is estimated at Rs. 8,38,367 crore, as against Rs. 7,35,461 crore in Q2, 2005-06, showing a rise of 14.0 per cent.

8. The wholesale price index (WPI) in respect of the groups, food articles, fish, minerals, manufactured products, electricity, and all commodities, has risen by 6.2 per cent, 3.0 per cent, 33.4 per cent, 3.8 per cent, 0.2 per cent and 5.0 per cent, respectively during Q2 of 2006-07 over Q2 of 2005-06. The consumer price index for industrial workers (CPI-IW) has shown a rise of 6.6 per cent during Q2 of 2006-07 over Q2 of 2005-06.

9. Estimates of GDP at factor cost and the growth rates, by kind of economic activity, for Q2 and H1 (April-September) of 2006-07 and the corresponding periods in 2005-06 at constant (1999-2000) and current prices, are given in Statements 1 to 4.

10. The next release of quarterly GDP estimates for the quarter October-December, 2006 (Q3 of 2006-07) will be on 28.02.2007.

STATEMENT 1: QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF GDP FOR Q2 (JULY-SEPTEMBER) OF 2006-07

at constant (1999-2000) prices

industry	(Rs. in crore) Gross Domestic Product								Percentage change over previous year
	2004-05		2005-06				2006-07		2005-06				2006-07
	Q1	Q2		Q1	Q2	Q1		Q2		Q1	Q2			Q1	Q2
1. agriculture, forestry and fishing	117,804	93,249		121,804	96,961	125,937		98,589		3.4		4.0		3.4	1.7
2. mining and quarrying	12,392	12,204		12,771	11,890	13,202		12,254		3.1		-2.6		3.4	3.1
3. manufacturing	83,286	88,162		92,229	95,318	102,630		106,621		10.7		8.1		11.3	11.9
4. electricity, gas and water supply	13,010	13,335		13,970	13,688	14,724		14,742		7.4		2.6		5.4	7.7
5. construction	35,937	37,028		40,402	41,592	44,249		45,676		12.4		12.3		9.5	9.8
6. trade, hotels, transport and communication	138,390	141,203		154,642	156,721	175,025		178,459		11.7		11.0		13.2	13.9
7. financing, ins., real est. and business services	77,245	77,505		84,021	85,662	91,527		93,825		8.8		10.5		8.9	9.5
8. community, social and personal services	77,009	84,121		82,637	90,821	88,770		97,122		7.3		8.0		7.4	6.9
GDP at factor cost	555,074	546,807		602,476	592,652	656,063		647,290		8.5		8.4		8.9	9.2

STATEMENT 2: QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF GDP FOR Q2 (JULY-SEPTEMBER) OF 2006-07

(at current prices)

industry	(Rs. in crore) Gross Domestic Product								Percentage change over previous year
	2004-05			2005-06		2006-07			2005-06		2006-07
	Q1	Q2	Q1		Q2		Q1	Q2	Q1	Q2		Q1	Q2
1. agriculture, forestry and fishing	131,036	105,298	139,398		114,441		154,249	123,419	6.4	8.7		10.7	7.8
2. mining and quarrying	15,977	17,697	19,204		18,731		22,256	21,231	20.2	5.8		15.9	13.3
3. manufacturing	102,401	111,137	118,979		123,473		135,621	143,365	16.2	11.1		14.0	16.1
4. electricity, gas and water supply	14,865	15,201	16,364		16,569		17,722	17,886	10.1	9.0		8.3	7.9
5. construction	41,888	44,435	49,566		51,928		56,786	59,881	18.3	16.9		14.6	15.3
6. trade, hotels, transport and communication	156,186	162,642	181,769		185,011		210,953	215,982	16.4	13.8		16.1	16.7
7. financing, ins., real est. and business services	95,654	98,786	109,469		113,413		124,644	130,279	14.4	14.8		13.9	14.9
8. community, social and personal services	88,797	99,807	99,761		111,894		112,714	126,325	12.3	12.1		13.0	12.9
GDP at factor cost	646,805	655,003	734,510		735,461		834,945	838,367	13.6	12.3		13.7	14.0

Q1: April-June; Q2: July-September

STATEMENT 3: ESTIMATE OF GDP FOR H1 (APRIL-SEPTEMBER) OF 2006-07

at constant (1999-2000) prices

Industry	APRIL-SEPTEMBER (H1)
	(Rs. in crore) Gross Domestic Product for H1 of			Percentage change Over previous year H1
	2004-05	2005-06	2006-07	2005-06	2006-07
1. agriculture, forestry and fishing	211,053	218,765	224,525	3.7	2.6
2. mining and quarrying	24,597	24,661	25,456	0.3	3.2
3. manufacturing	171,447	187,547	209,252	9.4	11.6
4. electricity, gas and water supply	26,346	27,658	29,465	5.0	6.5
5. construction	72,965	81,993	89,925	12.4	9.7
6. trade, hotels, transport and communication	279,592	311,363	353,484	11.4	13.5
7. financing, ins., real est. and Business services	154,750	169,682	185,352	9.6	9.2
8. community, social and personal services	161,131	173,458	185,893	7.7	7.2
GDP at factor cost	1,101,881	1,195,128	1,303,353	8.5	9.1

STATEMENT 4: ESTIMATE OF GDP FOR H1 (APRIL-SEPTEMBER) OF 2006-07

(at current prices)

Industry	APRIL-SEPTEMBER (H1)
	(Rs. in crore) Gross Domestic Product for H1 of			Percentage change Over previous year H1
	2004-05	2005-06	2006-07	2005-06	2006-07
1. agriculture, forestry and fishing	236,334	253,839	277,668	7.4	9.4
2. mining and quarrying	33,674	37,936	43,487	12.7	14.6
3. manufacturing	213,539	242,452	278,986	13.5	15.1
4. electricity, gas and water supply	30,066	32,933	35,608	9.5	8.1
5. construction	86,322	101,494	116,667	17.6	14.9
6. trade, hotels, transport and communication	318,829	366,780	426,935	15.0	16.4
7. financing, ins., real est. and Business services	194,440	222,883	254,923	14.6	14.4
8. community, social and personal services	188,604	211,655	239,038	12.2	12.9
GDP at factor cost	1,301,809	1,469,972	1,673,312	12.9	13.8

H1: April-September